Leadership
Why Geopolitical Risk Remains a Business Blind Spot in the Middle East
Leaders in the Middle East face unpredictable geopolitical risks. Only 21% feel confident in managing these challenges. Adaptability and scenario planning are key.
July 08, 2025
Leaders across the Middle East have long operated in a region shaped by fast-moving dynamics—economic transformation, ambitious national visions, and yes, frequent geopolitical shocks. But even the most experienced boards and CEOs are finding today’s risk landscape uniquely unpredictable.
New insights from Korn Ferry’s upcoming global risk survey reveal a stark truth: among all major threats, geopolitical risk is the area where CEOs and board members feel least confident. Only 21% say they’re “extremely” or “very” confident in their organization’s ability to manage these challenges.
That confidence level is significantly lower than it is for managing AI disruption, economic volatility, or even the widening skills gap.
For the Middle East, the timing of this data couldn’t be more relevant. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran and other regional flashpoints has left many organizations asking: Are we truly prepared?
Jonathan Holmes, Managing Director for Korn Ferry in the Middle East, Africa, and Turkey, puts it plainly: “Leaders in this region are used to navigating change, but the speed and scale of recent geopolitical shifts are testing even the most resilient. What matters now is how fast you can adapt, how well you can scenario-plan, and how you keep your board aligned and informed.”
The Korn Ferry study, which surveyed 250 CEOs and board members globally, found that 63% of organizations had experienced increased exposure to risk in the past 12 months. And while many are beginning to embrace scenario planning—there’s still a gap between awareness and preparedness.
The survey found that confidence related to geopolitical risk was lower in the US (19% of respondents were "extremely or very" confident, versus 30% for the rest of the world). From the perspective of the Middle East, concrete responses to the Iran conflict are still developing, says Lucy Phillips, a Korn Ferry project manager based in the United Arab Emirates. "Given how recently these geopolitical developments have occurred, the specific impact on business in the Middle East remains unclear," she says.
So, what can boards and leadership teams across the Middle East do?
1. Develop Leaders Who Can Pivot, Fast
Don’t train for one outcome—prepare for many. Equip leaders with the skills to pivot across multiple futures.
2. Treat geopolitical risk like cybersecurity
Appoint an internal or external advisor who can brief leadership regularly and help shape agile responses.
3. Don’t wait for the next board meeting
Boards may meet quarterly, but geopolitical events unfold daily. Set up regular updates, dashboards, or alerts.
4. Make risk culture part of business culture
Risk management isn’t just for compliance. It’s a board-level priority that should influence strategy, talent planning, and communications.
The lesson? You don’t need to predict the future—you just need to be ready for it.
Find out more about how boards and leaders are handling today’s volatility by exploring our leadership topics hub.
Key takeaways
- Low Confidence in Managing Geopolitical Risks: Only 21% of CEOs and board members feel confident in their ability to manage geopolitical risks, which is significantly lower than their confidence in handling other threats like AI disruption and economic volatility.
- Increased Exposure to Risk: 63% of organizations have experienced increased exposure to risk in the past 12 months, highlighting the growing unpredictability of the geopolitical landscape.
- Importance of Adaptability and Scenario Planning: Leaders need to adapt quickly, plan for multiple scenarios, and keep their boards informed and aligned to effectively navigate geopolitical uncertainty.
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